good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters. u.s. equity futures a slide with the treasury yields after president trump failed to appear at the coronavirus news conference. announce acted to major stimulus package. the u.k. braces for its biggest dose of stimulus in decades. it's a high-stakes debut for the chancellor. italy said to plan to double the stimulus to combat the outbreak.

and momentum builds, joe biden opens a commanding lead over bernie sanders in the race for the democratic presidential .omination among the winds, the delegate rich michigan. confidence is evaporating again with a no-show by trump who had no details on tax benefits to the end of the year. world markets are on tenterhooks. bears are winning in australia. you are back in fair territory there. roll it over, have a look at the s&p 500 from limits down on monday to limit up on tuesday, prevarication and procrastination cost. there is a lack of cohesive policy response.

dollar-ian, money going back into the buyer haven. up by 2%. they saved you will see shale literally fall apart. c and opec-plus agreement, demand will recover. i call that optimism. to our top story -- coronavirus, the environment of giuseppe conte looking to increase fiscal stimulus for the fourth time in a month. finance ministry officials are working out how to double the existing package. the number of infections in italy has surpassed 10,000. in the united states, president trump was a no-show, as said, at the white house for the coronavirus briefing. so we wait.

the european market open anchor never far from westminster. waiting to understand the size and scale and the duration of stimulus. we have not had it yet. anne-marie: exactly. we are still waiting. president trump leaving investors lingering. he was a no-show yesterday. after monday, he said he had this news conference, so he left very kudlow and michael pence to field questions. kudlow says trump wants to extend his payroll tax relief holiday to the end of the year, but he could not answer questions about how much it would cost, what it would look like and if it has congressional support, so uncertainty now in the markets and you see that with u.s. equity futures lower and also treasury yields dropping today. potentially, though, it could be salvaged today. president trump is expected to

street's biggest banking ceo's. they are expected to be around the table in d.c. we will have to wait and see what comes out of that meeting. yes, of course, at this stage, it is not a banking crisis but a risk of a consumer crisis. good morning. fiscal largess versus coronavirus -- which one will be triumphant in this particular delivery? good morning. >> good morning from westminster. we are looking for -- the exchequer, the chancellor -- the chancellor of the exchequer has only been in the office for a few months. around ideas floating such as obviously more funding to the national health service, but also what would he do around sick pay, enabling people to

take time off work when they need to, mortgage relief for those who maybe have difficulty paying the bills, so that is the u.k. focus, along with a big focus on infrastructure spending, but that is much more of a long-term project, something that was pledged to level up the country in the election back in december, but on the coronavirus front, we also hear in london are mindful of what else is going on around europe. you mentioned what was happening in italy. we've seen urszula vendor line -- we've seen ursula van der what is goingbout on in italy. all over europe, budgets being written up and new ones being created. manus: yes, rulebooks are getting tossed out the window as it did many years ago. you forring it back to the final line on this. the policy action to give confidence to investors. >> it's a good question.

we are seeing a lot of wall street banks and firms coming out with what they think would alleviate the crisis. ubs wealth management talking about emergency funding from state and federal government toward developing a vaccine, supporting hospitals, help with supplies. j.p. morgan asset management talking about corporate stimulus , and finally yesterday, francine spoke to philipp hildebrand of blackrock and they were talking about welfare increase and unemployment insurance, so a bit of a wish list in new york on wall street about what they think would be useful for the u.s. to do to alleviate the pain the coronavirus has caused. thank you very much. to one of the ladies who runs global equities for allianz.-

the point on anne-marie made, phillip hildebrand was with us saying if we have the u.s. leadership we did in two thousand eight, that is the big question. we have a very present, very strong, very focused readership team that coordinated the event -- very strong, very focused leadership team. >> we have some early examples of how to deal with this crisis from china. one hopes the leaders will be looking to see what we learned there in terms of early then applyingd those. we will have to see how well that is done in europe and in italy arebut certainly taking some quite .rastic action they do appear to work.

signs that the worst is over and china from the data we can see -- the worst is over in china from the data we can see. so it is about containment and the policies there, and that is proving tough in italy. you have lived through a number of crises, as have i, so i want to know what is happening within allianz. seems fear hasit gripped us. have you adjusted anything as this has escalated and this week has tossed us into huge volatility? what i look at the fear and greed indicator on my screen, it really is torching up -- when i .ook >> it is, so volatility has risen a lot, as you would expect, particularly this week driven by opec. been a growing

concern as we have gone through opec was aut complete surprise even to experts in the area. as for what we've been doing, i some on monday, there were -- there was some quite indiscriminate selling, so some .arginal opportunities morestrategically, it is of a wait and see. when you have had a scale of adjustment in the markets that we have seen, you normally will get a period of shifting backwards and forwards while the market tries to make up its mind, perhaps at levels now, technical levels, where it is

quite crucial to hold, so that is where i think the market will on theng up its mind news of if it will be doing that or if we will get further lows. at the moment, i think it is time for investing where you see some really interesting opportunities, and there are now some real values appearing in some areas, but not everywhere and we did start the year at quite extended levels of valuation in absolute terms. so we have come back down to more fair value, but it is not overall really button base in the end and we are seeing a time where you are getting downgrades in economic and corporate earnings again, so there is no rush from that perspective. that is the picture at the moment. say and like what you that global equity valuations are more attractive than they have been recently.

debate over the rest of the hour, but risk of recession, proclivity for recession and the united states of america, are you preparing in any way for further de-escalation and growth overall, let's say, in developed markets in terms of decisioning? >> there is certainly a risk on the downside. that is clear. the question is how much downside. hitting europe and the u.s. which are the main drivers, which are the main bulk of growth from the region, so we are now going to see the real impact. companies, they are in some cases withdrawing , so we are in a bit of an air pocket as far as

understanding what real impacts are doing a certain amount of analysis both at the macrolevel and microlevel to see where the biggest impacts are likely to be of the containment, the disruption. we will talk about some of the ramifications. we will dig into some of those ideas in a moment. stay with us, lucy mcdonald, allianz global investors. let me get you up to speed. in u.s., to my credit presidential candidate joe biden has won michigan, the biggest prize of tuesday's primaries. he also won missouri, mississippi. next week, the focus turns to illinois, ohio, and florida along with arizona. it has extended its rebound from

the biggest crash in a , but the price war between saudi arabia and russia continues after saudi arabia said it could only boost supply to record. russia says it could also up its output. >> i think that in the short-term, we could increase production to 200,000, 300,000 barrels a day in the perspective is for 500,000 barrels a day in the linear future. first of all, i want to say that doors are not closed, the fact that the agreement will be increasing production is not extended since april 1 and does not mean we cannot further interact with countries of opec and non-opec. manus: up next, joe biden takes

michigan, missouri, mississippi. it is the latest big primary test in the u.s. we bring you the details. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the odds are 80% that we will have a recession. >> markets have woken up to the reality that we are probably headed into recession. >> people are using this rally as an opportunity to do risk little bit. not seeing aare catastrophic environment, so we have not fully de-risk. >> it is important for investors not to panic, not to rush into

something they consider a safe haven. >> the worst is still to come in terms of the economic data over the next few weeks and months. >> the impulse fiscal policy is probably appropriate. >> the fed will not be hiking rates any time soon. >> something can be done on fiscal policy quite quickly. i think the only thing we are missing there is doom, gloom, and bust. some of our eminent guests and their outlook. one stalwart of daybreak europe, lucy mcdonald, she has been through a crisis or two. i have this vision of you as a stoic fund manager telling all the boys, stay calm. we are going to carry on. we are up over 50%. larry summers is terribly pessimistic. this. look at what is your latest thinking about the risk off?

a technical recession in the united states of america, a real recession? how would you describe the risk? on our scale, it looks very high. it was shifting up that way last , and then things started to recover toward the end of the , but it does look highly likely. if the measures he is talking about are enough to really push that out. with the will deal fiscal point in a moment. you say when we get through this , and we all hope that we do, obviously, there is a human side to the story, but you say that technology is perhaps part of the super trend that will irrevocably change when we come

out of this. you name a couple of names. why? what are you thinking? >> this is a trend that has been going on for at least a decade, and that is the shift to digitalize all business, shifting everything into the cloud and the materializing. what we are seeing at the moment an increaseds is anxiety to shift further in that direction and if that is through of trouble or shifting so that there is more control of seems a likely outcome that this trend which is already in place is going to be accelerated. i think in the short term there

could be more disruption to the trend just because of getting people in and out of offices to install in some of these major projects, but that is a short-term disruption. i think we will see this trend accelerating further. i want to know what kind of response you want from trump. we will talk about that in a moment. here is what you need to know for your morning and your day. former vice president joe biden won michigan, missouri, idaho, mississippi, consolidating his delicate lead -- delicately over bernie sanders. he celebrated in philadelphia. >> it's more than a comeback in my view, our campaign. from a soulless

nation. this campaign is taking off and i believe we are going to do well on this point on. take nothing for granted. manus: let's get to jodi schneider, our senior international editor. in the scale of this when context. >> it is an important when given that he did so well on super tuesday. today, he kind of swept the field. michigan and michigan was really a place bernie sanders did well against hillary clinton. he had a surprise victory there. he was really hoping to pull it off tonight, and it just was not in the cards. while he is still a ways away, joe biden, from that 1191 delegate count you need to

secure the democrat nomination, he is moving ahead of bernie sanders week by week here. , so itxpected to do well will be very hard for bernie sanders to catch him. to bethe virus fears seem raising the whole issue of trust . voters in exit polls showed us that bernie sanders does less well with voters in that category than does joe biden. obviously, coronavirus fears on the upswing in the united states.

editor on the political front. let me get you up to speed. plans to create 100 -- 137 billion euro management unit. the french insurer did two units , core and alternatives. the latter will bring together its real estate asset arm and structured finance. tips the troubled hospital operator into full-blown accounting scandal. the company is trying to establish the exact nature of the debt facility, but the company says some of the money may have been used for unauthorized purposes. tocathay pacific expects post a substantial loss in the first half of 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak adds to challenges facing the carrier. the warning comes as cafe's net in 2019 by 20%. coming up talking oil price war between saudi arabia and russia

continues. moscow's energy minister says the kremlin is not closing the door to cooperation with opec. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's daybreak europe. considers boosting its oil reserve after the price crash. get ready for the recovery. cheap oil -- what is that mean? the biggest plunge in three decades. saudi arabia upping the ante, going head to head with russia. commodity markets are moving. is rising. let's get to dani burger. ni: yes.

there was a huge gap down on monday trading. this inherently causes volatility. typically, what we see when there is a big price gap like this, new information comes in, which means more profit opportunity, which means more risk, which means more volatility. typical pattern as we see prices chart back up, then it is a dead cat bounce going back down. that is what we tend to see historically. because of that, have a lot of short-term players who would take out short positions at $41. headlines coming in fast and furious about the oil price war, but despite those, we are likely to see volatility and volume surging just because of that cap. let's see if opec plus can meet again and if anyone believes what they say. coming up in the show, coronavirus, the impact on retailers, the change in our habits. what is the impact?

we have this story for you, but bloomberg has conversations you need to listen to. adidas, i will give you numbers very shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. equity futures slide with treasury yields after president trump nailed to appear at a coronavirus news conference. he was expected to announce a major stimulus package. baptism of fire -- the u.k. braces for its biggest dose of stimulus in decades. it is the high-stakes debut for the chancellor. italy says it plans to double stimulus to combat the outbreak. and momentum builds. joe biden opens a commanding lead over bernie sanders in the

race for the democratic nomination. among his wins, delegate rich michigan. adidas is putting the number aroundthe cost coronavirus in the billions of euros. 800 euros -- 800 million euros to one billion euros will be the risk for china, so you are looking at nearly a billion dollars. for 2020 revenue growth will be 6% on a constant revenue basis. the 2020 outlook does not reflect the impact of coronavirus and the numbers for the full year, 3.80 five, a beat on expectations. full-year sails rose by 6%.

the market had looked for 6.44 percent. sails will rise 6% to 8%. slipping in the fourth quarter. the men who can answer questions as casper moore said. he joins the bloomberg team later in the day. don't miss the interview later in the day with anna and matt. saly int to juliette singapore. dani burger is in london. the aussie share market, the bears are winning. >> they certainly are. it looked like the asx 200 was going to stage a remarkable turnaround yesterday, but today, it adds to that rollcall of asian markets in bear market down 20% from its

february 20 record. s&p did retain its aaa credit rating on australia but warned of a technical recession by june . the rba hinted qe could be coming out of a fiscal stimulus package to be announced by the government tomorrow. japan and korea already in bear markets, saw further declines today. the nikkei at december 2018 lows . thank you very much. anne-marie, good morning to you. we've had a bounce and oil. we gained some of it back. take >> i'm looking at copper. when you want an edge on global expectations, you look at copper, and right now, it is a warning signal. a 50-day moving average. what makes it interesting is look at that other circle in 2019. we started at the year pretty much on a positive tone for copper, but now it is looking

pretty grim for commodities. the demand outlook is looking pretty dire. risk assets looking like they will have a sustained breeding for longer and this is just the first of the warning signs. canary in thea proverbial coal mine -- bit of a canary in the proverbial coal mine. haven of choice relative to bonds, how is this stacking up? >> the questioning is will we get to the 100 per dollar level? it seems everything but inevitable at this moment. earlier this week, it reached an 11-year high, but if you are an options trader, they are saying the boj, nothing they can do to intervene will stop the march higher. the highest since the financial crisis, this is being driven by put options. in other words, yen going higher from here. the boj cannot do much at this

point. they are already being put on a watchlist by u.s. treasuries for currency manipulation, so short of selling the yen, which they are unlikely to do, according to pepper stone research, they could not stop the yen from going higher for -- higher from here. the question on these moods, when will we break what hunt -- when will we break 100 and what we do from there? we have had the biggest coronavirus risk hitting retailers, potentially empty stores and empty shelves. we have the outbreak spreading u.s.. asia, europe, the we have concerns mounting about supply chains, closed chinese factories, deadly disease. i take it to you straight away on the adidas numbers, they talk about the supply chain. if you open up the financial

performance, they say display -- despite supply chain shortages, the company has experienced strong demand in midprice apparel. this is all about risk and they put a number on it right now, 800 to one billion euros. >> there's lots of risks. you firstly have the factories being closed. obviously, that has disrupted production. i'm told things are gradually getting back to normal, but there will have been disruption. that are got products delayed or canceled, that could be a bit of a blessing for retailers because the bigger worry now is that the effect of this virus spreads from china through to other parts of the world, and consumers just stop are worriedse they about spending, worried about the threat of a recession.

just digging into what adidas was saying about geography, the driver of their growth was up. the demand side of this equation is incredibly important. do you think retailers, given that they've got an online delivery mechanism which has got it some challenges -- do you think the demand side can face demand implosion here on these retailers? is that a real risk? >> i think depends on what side of the demand slowdown it is. of a worry about buying, you're looking at the stock market thinking my pension is going to be affected, my savings are going to be affected, i think i will just save a bit more iran and demand, that will affect online and

shopping in stores. let me take it to you. the consumer or consumer names, of do you look at them, sort pre-this week, pre-this market collapse? are you concerned? will you adjust? how do you look at it? >> we have seen in china that what has been most affected his leisure, restaurants, travel. those have been in the front line, and that has been the case now for months. we anticipate that will be the then forwhere, and other goods and services, it depends. if you get things online, people are still doing that if beessary, so that seems to replicated elsewhere.

you are beginning to see in china some of the closures coming back, but they have been .ery, very connected the lecture is have obviously been very drastic closures, so it is a very severe impact, but we have seen it early on there. we have seen the impact on the , whichchain for others is the demand elsewhere in europe and the u.s., which is clearly the majority of demand. manus: thank you very much. let me get you up to speed -- you've got your first word headlines around the world. italy set to double the amount of fiscal stimulus to tackle the coronavirus. it is increasing the amount of money on offer for the fourth

time in a month. that is after the european union agreed to stretch its budget rules to help member states fight the outbreak. u.s., democratic presidential candidate joe biden has won michigan, the biggest prize on tuesday's primaries. he also won missouri, mississippi, further widening his lead over brother -- over bernie sanders. next week, the focus turns to illinois, ohio, and florida along with arizona. vladimir, president has set the stage for staying in power as russia's leader after endorsing a proposal to reset term limits under a revised constitution. twochange would allow putin more six-year terms after his current one expires. global news 24 hours a day on air and quicktake by bloomberg,

powered by 2700 journalists and more than 120 countries. don't forget the analysts. coming up on the show, 2019 was the first year in history without a budget abatement and the u.k., and this year, it make the coronavirus will the government take up most of it. the review is next. this is bloomberg.

manus: it's a daybreak era. i'm manus cranny in dubai. isn't a bearreally market. bottom line is trump did not show up. he has no detail on the benevolence to the economy.

to the u.k. now, the risks, the rewards, the ramp up to borrowing in today's budget. 2019 was the first year in budget history without a budget statement. and in 2020, britain is confronting the worst economic since the financial crash. as coronavirus continues to spread, the outbreak is overshadowing what was meant to be prime minister boris johnson's landmark moment, a plan to put funds into infrastructure and revise so-called left behind regions. chancellor is expected to present to business to help people survive, support. guest,elcome our next u.k. equities portfolio manager. budget.t ready for this

amber, good to see you. will we be limited by coronavirus, or will they start out on the front foot with coronavirus helping business? right, thathat is coronavirus is obviously front and center at the budget that otherwise was going to be focused a bit more specifically on northern infrastructure, but now the focus will have to be on the capabilities in other public dealing with the different scenarios they will be looking at around and outbreak. the scale offer to the potential infrastructure stimulus potentially tripling the net investment in public, in real terms the biggest since 1955. how does that manifest? how do you trade that? how do you position for that? >> yes, obviously, a lot has

about, so i do think the markets are expecting an but willin spending, be looking for areas of specific investment, something that i think we might see is a focus on housing and how they make housing more affordable in the u.k.. we will be looking for specific measures there and what that u.k. for the likes of house builders. obviously, a focus on infrastructure will help companies in building products, part of thea small u.k. market. i think overall, what we are looking for is a boost to consumer confidence and to business confidence in the u.k. manus: this is going to be hard to achieve.

exposure to house builders through barracks. what u.k. exposure -- if we look at the reprieve we had in the mid-caps after the election with the longest winning streak since 2017, where do you want to be positioned in the u.k.? i know it is a difficult market at the moment, but give me your perspective. >> it looks like there will be structural support from the government in that area for the foreseeable future, so i think that makes sense. and i've for oligopoly there, which makes for decent returns, which is the sort of thing we look for. elsewhere, it depends if you are looking for growth or income. certainly income is available now in the u.k. particularly after the recent troubles, and that is in front of the health

care and energy. i think even in some of the banking sectors, but still, finding real structural growth is more of a challenge in the u.k. than elsewhere in the world. that part andold a quick rapid fire from both of you. do you think another rate cut is something that will happen and that help that reboot structural growth story, or do we need something more? of englandthe bank stands ready to act. they are waiting to see the impact of coronavirus to directly and indirectly in terms of how companies are responding to the outbreak. they have some power, but i think they are cautious to use it before it is necessary, but very much standing ready to act.

manus: what do you want to see from the bank of england? >> we will probably see more listening, but they are headed toward the limits of the capability as are most of the other central banks around the world. shift ontoeeds to .iscal stimulus now forcing --irus is loosening the fiscal purses around the world. to thelet's get ramifications of that. thank you, ladies. lucy macdonald, my guest host globalrning from allianz investors. it has just gone 10:49 here in dubai. jp morgan is warning the coronavirus may worsen trade conditions for one of the most the good assets, u.s. treasuries.

they say overwhelmed banks could be flooded with next to $300 million worth of u.s. government debt. that could pose a challenge to the repurchase markets, a vital part of the financial system. 100 37lans to create billion euro asset management and a growing demand for , al estate and other assets french insurer dividing asset management businesses into two businesses for an alternative unit. the latter will been together his real estate arm and structured finance. he expects a substantial loss in 2020 as coronavirus outbreak hertz travel demand. the challenge faces the carrier after it battles to the hong kong protest last year, the warning comes after it cut its net income under 28% for 2019.

that is your business flash this wednesday morning. coming up on the show, pressure building for the ecb to act tomorrow, your morning call. what will christine lagarde do? this is bloomberg. ♪

europe.t's daybreak the ecb holds its policy meeting tomorrow. speculation is building they will follow the fed and cut interest rates. the line coming in from aramco is that of armco will boost the maximum sustainable capacity, 13 million barrels of oil, they will dig into the reserves for that. dropping.t is

it was up 7% at one juncture. lucy mcdonald is my guest host this morning. there's a couple of pieces of the jigsaw we need to finish off. many people are saying this is not a global financial crisis yet, set that aside, this is a health care crisis. take? >> it is highly likely, and it is an area where we have been quite keen anyway from an investment perspective for the last six months because it has been an area where you have had risk and growth potential in a time of an uncertain economic environment, and also valuations have been relatively interesting . not perfect, but it is focus, and the underlying

on really radical reform is fading very, very quickly. to us it seems like an area where you want to have a good amount of exposure between the overall -- to the overall environment anyway. now, raising up the political agenda for spending, that seems to also be very supportive. broke that headline -- by the way, before we move on from that, we have a couple of different names. do you want more u.s. exposure than you want european exposure? are they global this bonds mechanisms that the health care companies need? >> you want the ones which have , so they aredrugs global companies. is the devices,

the services, and those companies which are actually bringing some of the benefits that are needed in the system. it will be only more the case as there is going to be further demand. i think in managed care, the there's a lotent, of different idiosyncratic risk. manus: i broke a headline that aramco boosted its maximum sustainable output to 13 million barrels. the oil output is shuttering, vacillating between extreme risk off and reprieve, but what shocked me was occidental ripping up the dividend. what does that say to you? we have 30 seconds on occidental and oil dividends. >> to me, find dividends where you can find them, but you want

to find them where they are well covered. that seems to be more on the integrated and more in the more mature as an economy. you very much for being with me this morning. good sport. my guest host, lucy mcdonald at allianz. ♪

anna: good morning, welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards live this morning from westminster live along matt miller. matt: a massive surge wall street overnight. futures are pointing lower on a hearhen all stocks want to is one word, and that is stimulus. the cash trade is less than one hour away.